Playoff Preview!

Hello and welcome to Hoff's Hot Takes: Playoff Preview Edition!  Today we go over some stats from the regular season, recap week 14, and talk playoffs!  Lets go!

• Jordan loses to K4. K4 puts up huge points this week on his way to a solid victory to clinch a playoff spot.  Jordan still stays in 3rd place with a strong points performance.  There were 7 players in this matchup over 15 points.  Lamar Jackson and Brandon Aubrey scored a combined 57 points, while K4 had Deebo Samuel and David Njoku match that total.  K4 is a big points machine.  He will forcefully take them if he needs to.  70 combined bench points here too.  Nico Collins got banged up so hopefully he can come back cause he is killing it lately.
• The Vikings and the Raiders played a terrific football game on Sunday to end week 14.  The final score of the game was Vikings 3 and Raiders 0.  There was one FG in the last 4 minutes of the game and that is it.  That game is the first 3-0 game in the NFL since Miami and Pittsburgh had a 3-0 game in 2007!  Also, this game was played in the Raiders dome.  Since the NFL has moved to domes, this is the lowest scoring game in a dome in NFL history.

• The 5 highest scores this season 

              1) Davies.  Week 3.  183.86

              2) Zach.  Week 4.  182.18

              3)  Mickey.  Week 13.  151.38

              4) Zach. Week 3.  150.73

              5)  Jordan.  Week 10.  149.58

• Jim ends his season on a high note by beating Marco by ten points, and pushing Marco out of the 1 spot down to the two.  If Marco would have started Justin Fields over Mahomes, he would have won and stayed in that top spot.  DJ Moore had another good game, and is already vaulting up the "most exciting.  Derrick Henry balled out, but the Dolphins were weak.  Tajae Spears and Henry combined for like over 30 points this week. Justin Jefferson already hurt again?  Jim is gonna need him to dominate that consolation bracket!
• The Eagles were 10-1.  They are now 10-3 after being beaten by SF and Dallas the last two weeks.  They lost both of those games by over 20 points.  That would mark the first time in NFL history a team 10-1 or better has lost back to back games by 20 points.
• Brandon loses to Rieger, as that result pulls both teams to 7-7.  Brandon could have started Etienne, London, and Dionte Johnson and won the game, but he did not, and he lost.  Over 20 points from Hopkins, Breece Hall, and Saquon in this game.  Other than that, it was a ton of chipping away.  Finally a good game from Kyle Pitts... Michael Pittman has been a stud down the stretch.
• Fosco ends the year on a heater - first he ties then first place Marco, and the week after goes and gets a win over Cirillo.  Besides the tie, this is the closest game in the Belafonte in 5 weeks.  Zeke and Zay Flowers played well, Justin Tucker still has 15 point potential.  CJ Stroud with 2 points is why Cirillo has to buy pizza.  He got ya so many good points in the season, and he taketh away.
• Brandon Aubrey of the Dallas Cowboys was a huge reason that the Cowboys won by so much in week 14.  He made 4 FGs that averaged 53.5 yards.  That is 214 yards of FGs.  That is the most yards of FG a kicker has made in one game ever.

• 5 lowest scores this season

             1)  Cirillo. Week 5. 45 points

             2) Rieger.  Week 1.  55 points

             3)  K4.  Week 6.  59 points

             4)  K4.  Week 4.  64 points

             5)  Fosco.  Week 9.  70 points

• Zach wins over Mickey, and vaults into first place thanks to Wally Bally.  Mickey rides Jake Browning and Evan Engram into the playoffs though.  By winning by 16 points, Zach moves up, and I think this is the right spot for him.  Zach just kind of wares you down.  He had only his kicker under 9 points this week.  I love Zach's team and he should probably make the title game. 
• Davies beats Jack by about 8 as he stays up in the playoff picture.  Jack drops to 5-9 after a monster start to the season.  Final score here of 86-78, so this qualifies as the slapfight of the week.  Tua did not have his usual Tua game, and Keenan Allen got banged up.  Justin Herbert also broke his hand or something, so Keenan is going to be without his QB moving forward, so that is not good for Davies... Of Course Jack has Jerome FORD...  Jack's DST and K outscored Davies DST and K 29-7 in this matchup.  Mixon and Mostert won this game for Jake.
• Jordan had the least amount of points in a victory this season, with 79 in week 1.  There were a total of 12 victories with teams scoring under 99 points this season.
• Jordan also had the most amount of points in a loss this season, with 123.9 in week 14 vs. K4.  There were 10 losses from teams this season scoring over 115 points.
• Rieger has 1407.34 points scored.  Rieger has faced 1402.4 points.  That is a point differential of +4.94.  That means on average, Rieger scored .352 more points per week than his opponent.  Almost perfect.
• K4 scored 1464.31 points and faced 1470.28 points.  That is a point differential of -5.97.  This means that on average, K4 was outscored each week by only .426 points.  Almost perfect as well.
• Both Mickey and Brendan also have a point differential of about .5 per week, with Mickey being in the positive, and Brendan being in the negative.

• Mickey finished the regular season with the most roster moves with 58.  Rieger has the least amount of roster moves with only just 5.  The average team made 26 moves during the season.
• Justin Fields lead the Bears to a victory this Sunday against the Lions.  Fields ran for over 50 yards in the first half of week 14.  That is the 8th time he has 50 yards in the first half of a game.  Most amongst anybody since he has been drafted - and he has missed a handful of games in his three years. 
• Marco won his first 7 games of this season.  He has since alternated results : L, W, L, W, L, Tie, L.
• Jim started his season 0-6.  He then went 5-0 in weeks 7-11.  
• Cirillo was 3-3 through 6 weeks, and then finished 1-7.
• K4 went 2-0, then went 0-5, and then finished 6-1.
• Jordan started the season 6-1 through 7 weeks.  In weeks 8-14. Jordan was 2-5. 
• Brendan had a stretch where he went 4-0, and then the next four weeks he went 0-4.
• Doug started 0-9, but then caught fire and finished 3-0-1.
• Mickey is the only team in the league that did not have three weeks in a row with the same result (AKA never had a three game winning streak, or losing streak)
• 3 guys scored 106 points in week 11 - Jordan, Jim, and Rieger

• Consistency Ranks = Here is something we keep track of in my other league.  Consistency Rank is your average finish amongst the 12 teams per week.  Add up your placement each week for the 14 week season and the divide by 14. You guys get it, your smart... for the most part.

             1)  Zach - 4.92  (So this means on average, Zach finishes between 4th and 5th each week, or 4.92)

             2)  Jordan - 5.14

             3) Marco - 5.53

             4)  Jim - 5.64

             5)  Davies - 5.71

             6)  Brendan - 6.28

             7)  Mickey - 6.35

             7) K4 - 6.35

             9) Rieger - 6.85

             10) Fosco - 7.32

             11) Jack 8.5

              12)  Cirillo - 9.28

ROUND ONE PREVIEW -> Congrats to Zach and Marco for terrific seasons, and securing byes for the first round of the playoffs.  Well deserved off week, and it is going to feel great firing off jokes in the group chat without worrying about winning.  To round out the playoffs, we have Jordan, Davies, K4, and Mickey.

Jordan (3) vs. Mickey (6) -> If Jordan and Mickey played every week in the Belafonte, Jordan would be 8-5 against Mickey.  Jordan, on average, outscores Mickey by 6.4 points per week... Mickey is a bit banged up at the current moment.  Trevor Lawerence played last week, but has a bad ankle, and did not look particularly good.  Alexander Mattison got rolled up on against the Raiders, and is extremely questionable to play this week. Good thing Mickey has the backup.  That is why you handcuff folks!  Jake Browning has played well, and should be able to replicate alot of those points from Trevor.  With Chase and St Brown, he should have a solid base of receiving yards.  He just had some other guys have big days, so maybe they are due for some bad days.  Jordan has Lamar, Lamb, and MVP Brandon Aubrey rolling right now.  I like Jordan to win this game, maybe a score of 104-93.  Winner will go on to face Zach in the Final 4.  Yahoo has Jordan favored in this matchup.  62% win probability.  Probably will go down if Chandler and Connor get in the lineup, but still should have Jordan favored.  Yahoo predicts 103-91.

Davies (4) vs. K4 (5) -> If Davies and K4 played each week in the Belafonte, they would each be 7-7.  Davies, on average, outscores K4 by 8.2 points per week.   As the lineups look now, Davies and K4 are tied in win probability.  Yahoo has this as a true 50/50 matchup: 98.1 to 97.8, with Davies coming out on top... So I guess not a true 50/50 if ya think about it.  Keenan Allen is banged up, and Diggs is going against a tough Cowboys team.  Jake's Dolphins also have the Jets, who have a tough D as well.  Nico is hurt for K4, which is big cause Nico has 4 games over 25 points, and can win him a week.  I see this matchup coming down to if Bijan can score more points against Carolina than Kamara can score against the Giants.  K4 is currently starting the Minnesota D, and Jake has Joe Mixon going against said Minny D, so if he scores that not only helps Jake, but hurts K4.  So Mixon and Kamara vs. Bijan is what we are looking at.  Give me Jake by like 4 points.  100-96.

Final Regular Season Standings - Zach, Marco, Jordan, Davies, K4, Mickey, Brendan, Rieger, Jim, Jack, Fosco, Cirillo

Final Power Rankings Heading into the Playoffs - Zach, Jordan, Marco, K4, Davies, Mickey, Jim, Rieger, Brendan, Jack, Cirillo, Doug 

If anyone wants an update on all the songs that have been used in Hoff's Hot Takes : https://open.spotify.com/playlist/4aWbKnJS5FZNXsUWbxEMXr?si=1d7a2eaef76c4de9