October Octo Boxes Hit Differently...
Hello and welcome my friends. This is the first edition of Hoff's Hot Takes in the month of October. I apologize for the time away, I had a work conference I was traveling for, as well as some two-daughter drama going on. Just know I care about you, you are valued, and you matter. We are sitting here after a bit of a break for the Takes. It is kind of like we all had a Thursday Night Football game to Monday Night Football game layoff. We are doing a week 4 and a week 5 recap. We are doing an interview with Mike. We are doing a 1/3 season review. We have a ton of fun stats. We have so much to do that I should shut the fuck up and just get to the things.... Today's Takes are brought to you by Bodem ( yeah, the same Bodem from last time. I had a twelve pack I got on sale for Jewels and I got two left. so what?), Phish 10/06/2000, and Amazon Prime. BTW - anyone watching the new Lord of the Rings show? Is it just me... Lets go...
Week 4 Recap - ***Yarbs vs. JHoff*** Josh Allen got 15 points just rushing and led Sling Blade to a victory over The Dude. Tee Higgins had a biiig ol touchdown and gave 30 points to Micah to push ahead. After week 4, Micah is now in a good spot. Hollywood Brown is gonna get targets all season cause they gonna be playing from behind a ton ( He got 11 in week 4). Jordan needs to get it together by week 6 or else there will be trades...***Jorge vs. Stoner*** This was the closest game of the season so far with Kyle pulling it out by 2.8. George started Wentz in this game, and probably,I dunno, maybe not do that... George needs a three for two trade or something to consolidate a deep roster. Soul Honkey got a vintage Derrick Henry performance, and don't look now, but here comes Breece Hall. Hall with Henry, and a deep WR corps could have Kyle back in the playoffs...***No Balls vs. Petey Long Dong*** Whoa boy, what a ton of points. For over 300 points scored, this was a blowout. Nolan only had two started under 23 points. Herbert had 340 and two TD and led the way. Nolan is good, and should still be there at the end. Peter had a ton of injuries but has a great deep roster and still scored a ton of points. He just ran into a buzzsaw...*** Tiddy vs. B3*** Tiddy is 4-0. Tiddy is good. Not much to say. Beej is bad. Not much to say. Lets move on here... *** Miggy vs Nickelodeon*** Mike is now 4-0. Nick is now 0-4. Let us keep moving on... *** Broseph vs. Jayblez*** Good game. JB drops to 2-2, and that should be his destiny this season. He will hover back and forth, and forth and back, from like the 5th seed to the 7th seed and probably will be the first one out. Time to worry about Pittsy. Joe got 20 points from his D and Kicker and that was the big difference. Mixon got going here, lets hope it keeps up (well, Joe hopes it keeps up, I hope Mixon burns his foot in a Foreman grill like Michael Scott and is out for weeks...)
King of the Hill Update - The pool of players eligible for a nice lunch/dinner with the misses/gumard is dwindling (eligible is a funny word to spell. I had an idea a while back that we should do a drunk/high spelling be of words that are everyday words but are still kinda wonky - ya know like eligible, necessary, misspelled - irony much - exaggerate, etc.. thought that would be fun) Anyways, Jordan lost Week 4 in the King of the Hill. a heroic effort from Deebo Samuel kept Kyle in the running. My team is falling faster than Icarus after an inspired flight (Dennis Miller laugh)
Week 1 - Beej (66.02)
Week 2 - Nick (71.5)
Week 3 - Nolan (53.88)
Week 4- Jordan (81.76)
Teams with 100 points in all four weeks - Mike, Tidwell, Micah.
Fun stats that I saw for week 4 and 5 - Phillip Lindsay is the only person who had 1,000 yards in his first two seasons who did not get drafted. He was undrafted that year, and Royce Freeman was supposed to be the bell cow. Next time on the Takes we will do an all-time rookie review in honor of ol Royce.... Trevor Lawrence lost 4 fumbles in week four, becoming the first person this century to lose 4 fumbles... Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage of all time through four games in NFL history... The week 5 London game between the Packers and the Giants will be the first London game ever between two teams with winning records... In the middle of week 5's game against the Vikings, a stat rushed across the screen that said Justin Fields had 38 pass completions, and 38 rushing attempts. Not good...Kenny Pickett is the first QB in history to have multiple rushing TDs in their first game... In week 5, Gabe Davis had the most fantasy points on three catches since Randy Moss. The picture will be below. It was Thanksgiving... Week 4 featured the best fantasy game of TJ Hockenson's career #ANF... If you count only the stats for Tom Brady from age 40 on, he would be the Bears all-time leader in yards and TDs... Josh Allen has the 5th most points through 5 games in NFL history, and he is the 3rd fastest QB to 150 TD in NFL history, behind Mahomes and Marino... In week 5, the Giants had a game winning drive against the Packers. All of the fantasy points that were scored on that drive were scored by 5 players that were started on average in 1.2% of all leagues...Eagles are the best 2nd quarter team of all time.
Interview - Today we have an interview with Michael Berrones. #Worth. When #Worth is involved, you do not need any more of an intro, just get to business, cause that is the #Worth way...
Question 1) Give me a name of a random person from high school -> Pyramid Scheme Tom Diebler.
Question 2) Bailey Zappe is playing QB for the Pats. What a cool name... What is the coolest name you can think of for a NFL player? -> John Conner. Perfect fullback name.
Question 3) Three albums you would take with you to the desert island... -> AK3 - Goddamit. Touche Amore - Just Exist. The Wonder Years - Suburbia I've given you all and now I'm nothing.
Question 4) Mt. Rushmore of Simpsons sides characters -> Lionel Hutz, Troy Mclure, Ralph Wiggum, and Ned Flanders. Stupid Sexy Flanders...
Question 5) Favorite food that starts with a C -> Carne Asada.
Week 5 Recap - ***Stone vs. Nozicka*** I am starting this at halftime of the early games, and Gabe Davis has 42 points on Peter's bench. Ouch baby, very ouch. If it makes you feel better, even if you started him, you would have lost. ***Tidwell vs. Patterson*** Mr. Cooper Kupp scored 30. That is 30 more than you did George. Step your game up you lazy man. George was led today by (checks his notes) Mike Williams, and Carson Wentz. Just as we drew it up. Amari Cooper being steady for Tidwell is huge. ***Rill vs. Weick*** Nolan had Hill, Conklin, and Herbert underperform their projections by 28 points combined, and Nolan still wins by a ton. I'm starting to question the long-term strategy of starting both DK and Lockett, as well as the Seahawks as a whole. ***Gaza vs. Berrones*** As of 10:12AM Monday morning, Mike got to almost 100 points without either WR starting, and TJ Hock with a 1 spot. Kelce and Carr need to outscore Mikes WRs by about 50 to win so I will give it to Mike, and if I am wrong, I will print a retraction. Also, in the same vein as Nick, I will say the strategy of starting two Browns RB and two Raiders WR is wild. Its working though I guess...***JB vs. Yarborough*** Joshua Allen had 50 points. Dalvin Cook and Cowboys D/ST combined for 50. JB had a good game, and should be solid moving forward, but he loses here. I need a 3 for 2 or 2 for 1 trade outta you JB. Maybe get Akers from Beej. Speaking of... ***Hoffmann vs. Jackson*** I texted JB this morning about starting or sitting Conner/Olave/Montgomery. I sat Olave. Shoulda sat Conner. Oh well. JPH won by 30 anyways. Beej, sell bro. Sell... Set the market. Do it. I have said it like 20 times....
Teams with 100 points in all 5 weeks - Mike, Tidwell, Micah. Same as last week.
King of the Hill update (Part 2) - Jordan was gone in week 4, and we are officially at the point where after this week like 40% of the league is gone. I could see Joe or Kyle winning this at this point, which is based on nothing but a hunch... Also, Beej would have been eliminated 4 out of 5 weeks. Today we eliminate George. Better luck next year.
Week 1 - Beej (66.02)
Week 2 - Nick (71.5)
Week 3 - Nolan (53.88)
Week 4- Jordan (81.76)
Week 5 - George (88.46)
Still Alive - Joe, JB, Micah, Kyle, Mike, Peter, and Tidwell
33.3% Season prologue/66.6% way to the epilogue -> Some (objective) thoughts on each team after 5 weeks. We are going in alpha order. And I mean alphabetically, not alpha like "I am going to alpha you", otherwise Beej would definitely not be first..
Brian - The Bad: Kyler, and Cam have not had a great start, even though Kyler is QB 8. Treylon Burks only had 17 targets through 4 games before going on IR. We may be offically entering "season from hell" territory. The Good: Garret Wilson is on pace for 1000 yards and 8 TD as a rookie, and is keepable in the 9th. Christian Kirk is good - on pace for 1200 and 12 TD. Davonta is on pace for 1000 yards.. Unless Montgomery doesnt heal up completely, Herbert should lose value soon. I would trade him ASAP Beej. The Beejees can keep Wilson, Kirk, and Smith for 9,6,6 and trade Cam and Murray for picks next year. Use those to get an extra 6th to keep those guys. Use your 1,2,3,4,55,66 to pick all RBs and trades.
George - Javonte tearing his knee up in week 4 is probably not what George wanted to see... Still, you got Javonte, who had 11 (!!!) catches in week one, should come back and be ready for next year, and will be a 4th round keeper. George has 4 guys at the top ten in their position, but is 1-3. Jamaar Chase is still going to be good, and will be worth his value for a long time. Chase is a top 10 keeper for sure. After those two facts, and let's be real, one of those facts just tore his ACL, George's team has some questions. As of week 4, Mike Williams is WR 17, and can be kept for a 6th, but who knows with him. His other good keeper got shot. He will figure it out though. He always does. This one may be a bit harder though, because his best 3 2023 picks are 4,5,8. He is also out a 3 and 6 in 2024. Good news though, he has an extra 14 and 15 in 2029.
Joe - We can start with the fact that Joe is stacked for the 2023 draft. He has an extra 1st, 2nd, AND 3rd. Also, if you look at his roster, he is built to win this year. If we look long term, James Robinson is keepable for a 5th next year, Travis Etienne is a 10th. I figure one of those will probably happen right? Okay so that is one keeper. I believe in Jameison Williams from Alabama on the Lions, but he still hasn't come back yet, so he could be a year away. He is an 11th. Christian Watson from the Packers is an 11th too, but still hasnt done anything. After that, we got CeeDee Lamb for a 3rd, which may be warranted, but is about as steep of a keeper you can get for our league. My point is, Hey Joe, use those picks and go all in this year homes. I expect Joe to be in the playoffs fighting for a win in that first weekend.
John - John , your tight end - woof! Shout out Home Alone, ya know... Anyways, Kyle Pitts has been the pitts. He has played 4 games, and has scored 2,2,11,3 points in those. Michael Thomas had 20,15, and 7 points before missing the last two. IF those two guys get back, and he can upgrade that Corderelle Patterson spot, unless he keeps it up, he can win the league. Longterm he is killing it - He has an extra 2, and 3 next season, and an extra 1,2,and 6 in 2024. His keepers - McCaffrey, and Thomas for a 2, and 8, are good, but they both are already hurt this season. Other than those two guys, if you look at JBs roster, he does not have a ton cooking. Maybe Curtis Samuel, as he is a FA, but that does not seem like a long term option. JB will be the 6 seed, or 7 seed this season. Book it.
Jordan - What a gigantic shit show. David Montgomery has been banged up, or playing in a monsoon, all season. The one regular game he had he scored 20 points. I have heard that Herbert may be a better runner for this system, so he may be on his way out. Chris Olave has been a revelation. He leads the NFL in air yards, and through week 4 he is WR 15. Entering week 5, Jaylen Waddle is WR 5 this season, and should be kept for a 6th. Dameon Pierce has been a revelation as well. So Jordan has a dilemma. Seems to be he has four good keeper options - Pierce, Montgomery, Olave, Waddle, and only three spots. He also has Hurts, who is QB 3, and Sutton who is WR 7 as of Saturday evening at 4:30PM. He is 10th place somehow. Look for a few wins, or a few trades soon.
Kyle - Well well. through 5 weeks into the season, Derrick Henry is RB5, and is starting to heat up. Drake London and Breece Hall were great rookie picks by Kyle. Drake can be kept late, and most likely will be kept to replace Terry McClauren. Breece is a difficult call because he is a third rounder. Other than JB keeping CMC in the 2nd, nobody has been kept for higher than a 4th. With Henry and Breece, Kyle would lose his 3rd and 4th round picks. Give me Kyle to be really good for a stretch this season(could have started already) and then coast to being close to the playoffs.
Micah - Micah is 3-2 after 5 weeks, but he has a ton to be optimistic about. Josh Allen is QB1, and probably will be for weeks, if not the whole season. Good news for him. Hollywood Brown's point totals through weeks -> 12,9,24,17,17. Cardinals are a shit show, but will always be good for second half points. Micah has four top 8 players at thier position, and scores points. I like Kenneth Walker in the 4th. If he takes over for Penny he will be a keeper. I think Micah will be a final four team, but his roster needs some keepers/youth for long term. If he wins money though, money trumps long term stuff.
Mike - According to my statistics, Miggy has not made the 'yoffs since 2014. And I know what youre thinking, youre saying, what the H Jordan, what a Mikey burn out the gate. I do not see it that way. I bring it up to point out that Mikey is going to the 'yoffs, and he is Chunting his way there. Lamar also does not hurt, as he is the fantasy points leader at this point after week 4. The 1/2 punch of DeAndre Hopkins, and Rashaad Penny on the bench may be the best duo right now. Give me Mike in the final game. After week 5, Mike has QB2, RB1, D/ST1 AND D/ST2, K3, TE4, along with Davante Adams, Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, and JK Dobbins.
Nick - I am going to bring out an oldie but a goodie here - What can you say about Nick's team that hasn't been said about Chernobyl. Nick has an extra 3rd in the 2023 draft. That is cool... Nick has the perfect team to trade for a bunch of 4-7th rounders. Fire sale if we lose again? I wanna see somebody sell, come on guys... I think it is a Zeke, and DK trade that starts it. He has Taylor for a 16th. He has Romeo Doubbs. Romeo can replace DK in the 8th - plus it is cool to have a guy names Romeo... Alec Pierce is a 13th. Go with Pierce, Doubbs, and Taylor in the 13th,12th, and 16th, and then use your extra 3rd and all those picks you will get for Zeke and DK, and be in the final 4 next season. Do it.
Nolan - An interesting development here with Jahan Datson.. He is on pace for 16 TD and a few extra points, however he is on pace for just like 500 yards. Is this a fluke, or is he good? He is on Washington, so I think you may know the answer, but you never know. Hey look, Herbert is not keepable forever, and Kamara is not the same guy he was a few years ago. Turns out that switching from the most accurate short yardage QB ever (Drew Brees) to complete shit (Jamies, and Taysom Hill) will change Kamara. Who knew? So, does Nolan drop Kamara (No, not yet, just throwing it out there...), or does he drop Herbert because he can not be kept again after next season? Does he keep Jahan because he is on pace to score a bunch this season? All I know is Justin Jefferson will be the best WR in the NFL. Give me Nolan to be there in the final four.
Peter- Amon Ra St. Brown is a guy, and Peter nabbed him in the 4th round, and it is arguably the pick of the draft so far. Pickens for the future looks promising so far, and if he continues to do the damn thing, he could be a great replacement of Mark Andrews on Peter's keepers. I believe Swift is the 2nd best keeper as of right now. So we got Swift, we got Pickens, and we got some questions, but probably Michael Pittman. Pittman's box scores look like this through 5 weeks -> 25, DNP, 11,4,8. Not ideal, but not too shabby. Peter made some real good picks, but all the values may not be there. Maybe Jamaal Williams in the 8th and just have both Swift and Williams on lock? Man, Peter loves the Lions, eh?
Steve - Tidwell is the only team this season with a points point in the first four weeks. Four guys got a points point in three weeks, but Tiddy is the only one with a top 6 finish in the first four weeks. Tidwell has RB1 and WR 1 in my opinion, and his other RBs are good. Oh, and he had K2, TE6, and QB6...He has so many WR, that if he wants to go in and get a 2 for 1 trade, he can trade one of his RBs and play Batemon or Mooney. I would stand pat though I guess. Give me Tiddy for the Final 4.
Playoff Predictions - Nolan Tidwell Mike Joe Micah Peter
Final Four Predictions - Nolan Tidwell Mike Micah
Final Game Predictions - Mike Nolan
Hoff's Hot Takes 10 Best keepers as of 10/9/2022
1) Justin Jefferson (Nolan)
2) DeAndre Swift (Peter)
3) Nick Chubb (Mike)
4) Saquan Barkley (Tidwell)
5) Jamaar Chase (George)
6) Johnathon Taylor (Nick)
7) Clyde Edwards Helaire (Tidwell)
8) Alvin Kamara (Nolan)
9) Jaylen Waddle (JPH)
10) Najaee Harris (Tidwell)
Hoff's Hot Takes Power Rankings - Nolan, Tidwell, Mike, Micah, Joe, John, Peter, Kyle, Jordan, Nick, George, Beej.
PHB Standings- Tidwell, Berrones, Micah, Nolan, Kyle, Peter, Joe, John, Jordan, George, BJ, Nick
Next Week - Analysis of all first round rookie picks, a rookie review after 6 weeks, an interview with somebody. I do not know who. Text me if you would like to participate and you have not dont the interview yet, A this week in Player Haters Ball history, and much more. See yall next week. Love.