End of Year Bonanza

01/10/2023


Hello and welcome to Hoff's Hot Takes.  Congratulations to Joe for winning the 2022 Player Haters Ball championship.  Here are 19 thoughts for you to wrap up your Fantasy season.  Thanks for reading this season.  See everybody again after the NFL Draft.  This week's Hoff's Hot Takes are brought to you by

19 Random thoughts to end the year

1) Daniel Jones is the only NFC QB in the playoffs who was a first-round pick.

2) NFL Playoff Preview - I feel that these games are not that fun to be honest.  Give me SF, Philly, Bengals, and Bills for the final four.  Give me Bengals and SF.  Give me the Bengals.

3) Tyreek Hill's 17 game pace with Tua as the QB - 119 catches. 1,768 yards. 11 TD.  Worth a top 5 pick in 2023 if his (Tua's) head is not mush.

4) NFL Draft Preview - DA BEARS... Seahawks with the moves of the centch.  They get the wildcard, and then they now get a top 5 pick.  Good move by that GM there.  The other team that did work is the Eagles, who now along side with a first round bye have the 10th pick in the draft... Bears trade down with Colts, Raiders, Panthers, or even Texans at 12.  Could set us up for a minute here... Texans have 2 and 12. Seahawks have 5 and 20.

5) Ranking the 15 rookie keepers I would most like to have in dynasty - Justin Jefferson, Johnathon Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Najaee Harris, CMC, DeAndre Swift, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Waddle, Derrick Henry, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, and Justin Herbert.

6) Who holds the first 24 picks in order - Jordan, Nick, Peter, Joe, BJ, Peter, Nolan, John, Nick, Tidwell, Micah, Joe, Joe, Micah, Tidwell, Mike, John, John, Kyle, BJ, Jordan, Peter, Nick, and Jordan. 

7) I am most interested to see what Nick and Beej do this summer.  Tons of trade possibilities for Beej, and Nick can do a ton with his picks.  Zeke is an interesting decision as well. but given he is a 16th rounder, it may not be that hard of a call if his situation is at least decent.

8) College Hoops thoughts - Purdue losing to Rutgers was not ideal.  Marquette is pretty good.  I like Alabama as well this season.  Houston, Arkansas, and Tennessee are also gonna get good looks from me for future bets to win the National Championship.

9) Dionte Johnson had 86 catches, over 850 yards, and had zero TD.  That is the unluckiest WR season in NFL history (official stat) 

10) Jared Goff had 8 completions that were stopped at the 1-yard line. Jared Goff also led the league in touchdown passes thrown at home.

11) WR 1 Justin Jefferson outscored WR12 Christian Kirk by 120 points.  RB 1 Austin Ekeler outscored Leonard Fournette RB 12 by 150 points.  That gap is basically the amount of points Cam Akers, and Deebo scored all year, respectively. 

12) Free Agent RBs to keep an eye on in order of most yards in 2022 - Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Tony Pollard, Jamall Williams, David Montgomery, Damian Harris, Rashaad Penny, Kareem Hunt, and Alexander Mattison.

13) Free Agent WRs to keep an eye on - JuJu, Allan Lazard, Jakobi Myers... Honestly, no big time guys are on the market.  Rumblings that DeAndre Hopkins will be traded, so that can be huge.

14) Free Agent QB/TE/etc...to keep an eye on - Lamar, Tom Brady, Geno, Daniel Jones, Jimmy G, Austin Hooper, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Mike Gieseki... three starting D lineman on Philly are up.  OL on KC is losing 3 guys to FA.

15) Travis Kelce has the 1st, 3rd, and 6th best TE seasons of all time after this historic season... Pat Mahomes had the best QB season ever.

16) Hoff's Hot Takes top 12 fantasy players for 2023 in order - CMC, Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry,  Saquon Barkley, Johnathon Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Jamaar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams.

17) Hoff's Hot Takes top 24 available for the 2023 PHB Draft - Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Joe Mixon, AJ Brown, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, Tee Higgins, Rhomandre Stevenson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Mark Andrews, Miles Sanders, Mike Evans, Aman Ra St. Brown, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Deebo Samuel.

18) CBS Fantasy Football podcast has Kenneth Walker III as the 12th overall player this upcoming season.  This is huge for Micah moving forward.

19) Who I would want to be heading into the 2023 season in order (note - taking into account picks, keepers, results, etc..) - Nick, Beej, Joe, Jordan, Nolan, JB, Tidwell, Peter, Kyle, Mike, Micah, George

Below is the Email JB sent out as the wrap up.  

2023 Draft Information:

1. Joe - Joe went from the 2021 Sacko (who still needs to play a round of golf in a dress btw) to our 2022 PHB Champion. This is not only his first championship, it's the first time finishing in the top 3 through our 14 year league history. His championship timing works nicely in that he cashes in the largest purse in league history thanks to our fee increase this year. Joe has compared himself to Theo Epstein for several years now, and it seems that comparison has finally come to fruition with this win and the drought he broke a la the Red Sox and Cubs. Looking back, there were 3 big moves Joe made that delivered his championship: 1) Travis Kelce third overall pick... Kelce ended up scoring 279 points, 117 more than TE2, and would be considered WR4, RB5, and QB13. 2) trading a 2 for Jalen Hurts (QB3) with Jordan in mid-October 3) trading for and keeping CeeDee Lamb from Berrones for a third last season. Lamb finished as WR6. To be fair, it wasn't all perfect management, as ditching Josh Jacobs (RB3) as a dynasty guy seems like it was a mistake, but everything else was able to overcome that loss. Joe's been stockpiling draft picks for several years now building for long term success, and his 2023 board is even more stacked than this year was. I'd expect him to be a favorite for another top 3 finish coming out of the draft next year. With this performance, every member of the league has now finished in the money at some point in our history, and only five teams remain having never finished with the championship (Micah, Peter, George, BJ, Berrones)

    1. Post draft projection: 4
    2. Potential Keepers: CeeDee Lamb, Deshaun Watson, Travis Etienne Jr., Jameson Williams
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1,1, 2, 3, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #12
    5. League Wide Performance: 94-62; 60.26%
    6. Historic Performance: #15 points/game


2. Micah: Micah had second best draft board coming into the season, but his keepers weren't as strong as some other teams. He had an up and down season but knocked out two powerhouse teams that both ranked in top 5 scoring in league history in Nolan and Berrones on the way to the final before his luck ran out. The scary Monday night football situation with Damar Hamlin means Micah wasn't able to get anything from Josh Allen and Tee Higgins, but he faced a 60 point deficit and was still going against Joe Mixon, so he and Joe agreed to call the game. Always the bridesmaid as Micah notches his third second place finish. His three championship appearances are a tie for third most in league history along with John, Jordan, Nolan, and Kyle. Micah's draft board comes down to earth next season and his keeper pool isn't the strongest. 3 year keeper Darren Waller will be returning to the draft pool, but it looks like he's got something special with Kenneth Walker III. Look for Micah to go heavy on rookie prospects next year to build out a keeper bench for the long term.

    1. Post draft projection: 2
    2. Potential Keepers: Kenneth Walker III (13th)
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 2, 4
    4. Draft Position: #11
    5. League Wide Performance: 89-67; 57.05%
    6. Historic Performance: #21/156 points/game


3. Tidwell: Steve's third place finish is his first time finishing in the money outside of his 2015 championship. Like most years, Steve had a clean draft board with no trades...he's the anti-George. His trio of RB dynasty keepers of Najee Harris, CEH, and Saquon Barkley were expected to give him a decent advantage without having the top loaded draft boards we often see, and they mostly did with Barkley as RB6 and Harris as RB16. Steve was flying high as the number one seed for about half the season before CEH was benched and Cooper Kupp got injured. Things went downhill from there, but he was able to hit the lottery with Jerrick Mckinnon off waivers in the final week of the season. McKinnon would end up single handedly securing a playoff spot and winning the first round playoff matchup. Don't be surprised if Justin Fields replaces CEH next year as a keeper, and Tidwell is probably back in the playoffs.

    1. Post draft projection: 5
    2. Potential Keepers: Justin Fields, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1,2,3,4
    4. Draft Position: #10
    5. League Wide Performance: 87-69; 55.77%
    6. Historic Performance: #33/156 points/game


4. Berrones: Mike earned himself a bye for the second time in league history; his last bye was in 2013. His 134.1 points per game were the 5th most in league history. Mike viewed a title this year as a birthright...he religiously beloved it was pre-ordered scripture. He earned that top point in 2 of the last 3 weeks of the season and looked to be going into the playoffs with the hot hand, but the team underperformed his regular season by 35 and 20 points only scoring 99 and 114 in his two playoff matches. Mike went all in very early this season trading his first and a conditional pick that eventually became a 4 for miles Sanders and George Kittle. It was a bold trade in terms of both compensation and the timing of the deal, but Mike was feeling it. Both guys ended up being major contributors and helped Mike earn a bye, though, so can't argue with the results. As several of us now know, Lamar Jackson is a double edged sword. He can toss up 50 points but also single handedly lose you games. Add Mike to the list of owners who have been burned, and I'd be surprised if you see Lamar on his team again, but, fortunately, he's got Trevor Lawrence on deck. In my opinion, Mike's fatal flaw preventing him from the title game didn't even happen this year... It was his trade of CeeDee Lamb (7th round dynasty) to Joe last season for a third round pick. Lamb finished as WR6, while Mike turned that 3rd rounder into Allen Robinson. I know there are ripple effects and you cannot determine every impact, but Lamb put up 32 in the second round of the playoffs while Mike lost by 22. Having CeeDee puts Mike into the one seed this year and all the rankings get shuffled, though, so it's not that simple. Mike's board is weak next season but he feels like he's got a top 5 QB in Trevor. Time to retire the browns RB duo, though.

    1. Post draft projection: 9
    2. Potential Keepers: Nick Chubb, Trevor Lawrence, JK Dobbins
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 2, 3
    4. Draft Position: #9
    5. League Wide Performance: 97-59; 62.18%
    6. Historic Performance: #5 points per game


5. John: Mister consistent this season scoring in the top 6 in 11 of 14 weeks and winning king of the hill, but that consistency was more so in the middle of the pack rather than the top as I didn't lead in scoring for a single week of the season. Michael Thomas was back to form for 2 weeks then done for the season, but CMC stayed healthy just to silence all the haters and is back to being RB1 in that 49ers offense next season. Kyle Pitts was a total bust this year, and if you had the misfortune of watching a falcons game outside of RedZone, you could see just how truly awful Mariotta is. Here's hoping the falcons trade a bounty of picks to the Bears for the first overall pick, draft Bryce young, and the two ball out for the next 10 year and Bears become a dynasty throughout the 2020's. My draft board is solid next year, but my keepers are reaching their expiration date. Time to say goodbye to Michael Thomas.

    1. Post draft projection: 8
    2. Potential Keepers: CMC, Pitts, ?
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #8
    5. League Wide Performance: 86-70; 55.13%
    6. Historic Performance: #34/156 points/game


6. Nolan had the most talented roster of the league on paper, and I thought he was a sure thing to win it all. His 135.8 points per game were the 4th most in league history...surprisingly, none of the top 3 performers in history have won a championship. (The highest scoring team to win a title was nick as the 8th most points in history and 131.7 per game). Nolan had a bad start to the season going 0-3 which hurt his power rankings tiebreaker positioning, but he was good enough to claw back into the playoffs anyway thanks to 11 of 14 top 6 finishes and 3 top 1 weeks. The 3 top finishes tied Joe for most in the league. He finished with RB1, RB12, WR1, and WR2 (Austin Ekeler, R. Stevenson, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill), but, in the end, I think Justin Herbert ended being a drag on his team at QB12, likely due to that cartilage injury early in the year, and Alvin Kamara couldn't overcome a generally bad Saints offense behind Andy Dalton. Nolan is missing a second round pick next year but makes up for it with WR1 Justin Jefferson as a keeper in the 7th round.

    1. Post draft projection: 1
    2. Potential Keepers: Justin Herbert. Alvin Kamara. Justin Jefferson.
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #7
    5. League Wide Performance: 98-58; 62.82%
    6. Historic Performance: #4/156 points/game


7. Nick - Coming out of the draft, I believe Nick was thought to be a top 3 team, but things went off the rails immediately when Dak Prescott got injured in the opener and missed the next five games. Here are Nick's starting QBs over the course of those 5 games: Matt Ryan, Jimmy G, Jared Goff, Jared Goff, Zach Wilson....Nick actually started Zach Wilson! #NeverForget. Outside of the QB troubles, Zeek is now RB2 on that Cowboys team behind Tony Pollard, but Nick isn't ready to admit that just yet. Jonathan Taylor had some big games but just couldn't stay healthy and suffered by being on the same team as Matt Ryan. With all that said, Nick started 0-9, but his team did get its act together and finished 5-1 over the last 6 games. He kept that momentum in the consolation bracket and ended up winning to earn 6 lotto picks for the draft. Nicks 2023 draft board is ridiculous. I'm gonna go ahead and give a men's warehouse style guarantee that he will finish in the money.

    1. Post draft projection: 4
    2. Potential Keepers: Zeek, Jonathan Taylor, DK Metkalf
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4
    4. Draft Position: #2
    5. League Wide Performance: 46-110; 29.49%
    6. Historic Performance: #107/156 points/game


8. Kyle: Kyle maneuvered in the pre-season to get an extra 4th round pick allowing him to keep both Derrick Henry and Deebo Samuel which alone would keep him competitive despite a pretty bad draft board. Let's also not forget that Kyle doesn't do research and instead piggy backs off of others on draft day by offering his consulting services in exchange for using their draft material and tracking players who have been taken. As he tends to do, he was able to snag one of the better waiver wire players of the season in Tua who was putting up some big numbers before having his brain all scrambled. Ol Terry McLauren finished WR15 despite being tied to Carson Wentz for a large part of the season -- I believe this is the final year for Terry, so farewell old friend. Remember best pick of the draft Dalton Shultz in the 16th? Well, he actually did kick some ass for the TE position for a while, and his loss definitely took some wind out of Kyle's sails. Kyle was stuck in what we dubbed "the muck" for much of the season -- that log jam of teams within 1 or 2 PRP's of each other falling between the #3-7 seed, and, ultimately, he fell short of the playoffs via tiebreaker to Micah by about 17 ESPN fantasy points. Kyle made a push for the playoffs by acquiring Josh Jacobs for a first rounder, so he's a bit hamstrung next season, but it's also his best draft board in like 4 years.Kyle will still have Henry next season, but time has run out on Terry and Deebo. Instead, he now has Cowboys RB1 - Tony Pollard - keepable for a 4th round pick, and maybe he'll keep Tua.

    1. Post draft projection: 7
    2. Potential Keepers: Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Tua
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 2, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #6
    5. League Wide Performance: 84-72; 53.85%
    6. Historic Performance: #26/156 points/game


9. Jordan. Does anyone remember when Jordan was in that cycle or tank and compete for like 6 years? He would stock up on draft picks in his tank season then spend them like crazy in his compete season. I didn't think he did that purposefully this season, but it sure seems like it's working out that way in practice as he was able to get an extra 2 for Jalen hurts... Probably should have been a 1 but I think Jordan was just cashing out and calling it a day...and, through the lottery gods, he's got himself the number one overall pick. He also invested heavily in rookie talent this season and has a surplus of high quality and high potential keepers. I bet he dishes someone to add another pick. His 2023 success will depend on two things. Can his rookie keepers sustain in their second year and does he draft first overall for a win now or set himself up for the long term.

    1. Post draft projection: 11
    2. Potential Keepers: David Montgomery, I. Pacheco, Tyler allgeier, jaylen waddle, Chris olave, dameon pierce
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #1
    5. League Wide Performance: 55-101; 35.26%
    6. Historic Performance: #99/156 points/game


10. Peter was welcomed back after a one year hiatus and came in with some strong keepers and a complete draft board. He was a playoff team through 7 weeks before slowly fading away. On his way out, though, he was able to secure a number one pick from Kyle, so he's sitting pretty next season with first two top six first round picks. Peter is losing Mark Andrews back to the draft pool but was able to make a couple nice acquisitions that will readily fill that gap with George Pickens and Jamaal Williams. It's possible he will have the entire lions backfield as keepers for years to come.

    1. Post draft projection: 3
    2. Potential Keepers: Jamaal Williams, George Pickens, d swift.
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4
    4. Draft Position: #3
    5. League Wide Performance: 71-85; 45.51%
    6. Historic Performance: #76/156 points/game


11. BJ shot his shot last year chasing the championship but it didn't work out, and he had to pay the price this year with a terrible draft board: His first non-keeper draft pick was in the 7th round. He had a 5th and 6th tied to Kyler Murray and Devonta Smith. There just wasn't much hope for BJ to compete this year, so he went into the draft thinking rookies and keepers, and he does appear to succeed on that front. Coming out of this season, he will have a bounty of wide receivers to pick from as his keepers and Cam Akers -- who kicked some ass in the final stretch of games after being a total non-factor for the first 12 weeks. If BJ doesn't mess up the draft, he's going to return to the playoffs next year...just don't screw up your keepers, and also look to dish an extra keeper for a draft pick.

    1. Post draft projection: 12
    2. Potential Keepers: Cam Akers , Devonta Smith , Garret Wilson , Treylan Burks, Rachaad White, Christian Watson
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
    4. Draft Position: #5
    5. League Wide Performance: 27-129; 17.31%
    6. Historic Performance: #138/156 points/game


12. George. George is the victim of a bad draft board and injuries, but, perhaps, the injuries stung more than the draft board woes this year. His first overall pick in the draft, AJ Dillon, turned out to be a bust, despite remaining healthy -- that's a self-inflicted wound when your first pick is in the third. Second overall pick and 4th round keeper Javonte Williams tore his ACL in week 4 - he didn't put up any big games while healthy, but he did flash some nice runs. Third overall pick and fourth rounder Brian Robinson got shot in the leg shortly after the draft but eventually did return healthy and does appear to be a legit RB for future seasons. 8th round keeper Mike Williams was a stud when healthy and a top 10 WR, but, like most of his career, the dude just doesn't stay healthy. Jamar Chase finished as WR11 but also missed four games right in the middle of the season during the bye weeks. If these guys had remained healthy, George may not have been a clear playoff team, but I bet he would have been aggressive in acquiring some extra pieces to make a playoff push. George's 2023 draft board is what you'd expect -- his first three picks are in rounds 4,5,6. I'll give George 20 bucks if he can refrain from any pre season draft picks in 2023.

    1. Post draft projection: 10
    2. Potential Keepers: Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson, Jamar Chase, Brandon Aiyuk
    3. 2023 Draft Board: 4
    4. Draft Position: #4
    5. League Wide Performance: 25-131; 16.03%
    6. Historic Performance: #140/156 points/game

2023 playoff predictions: Joe, Nick, Jordan, John, Peter, BJ

2023 top 3 predictions. Nick. Joe. Jordan.

EVERY SONG EVER FROM HOFF'S HOT TAKES (TM)  

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Hoff's Hot Takes (TM)
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